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In recent years, the steady increase in atmospheric CO₂ has set off alarm bells. Faced with this problem, a seemingly logical idea emerged: if we can't stop emitting in time, let's at least try to remove some of that carbon dioxide from the air.
Thus, a new technology sector was born: carbon capture. Startups and large companies began developing solutions to remove CO₂ directly from the atmosphere, an approach known as direct air capture.
The initial growth of this sector was no accident. Large companies like Microsoft and Google decided to commit to paying for carbon removal. Their goal: to offset some of their emissions and improve their environmental image.
This support allowed many startups to take off. There was talk of a new multi-billion dollar industry, capable of capturing billions of tons of CO₂ per year.
To put this in context: some studies estimated that around 11 billion tons of CO₂ would need to be removed annually to prevent global warming from exceeding 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
A lot of talk and little action. Because progress has been slower than expected. Although investments reached nearly $1 billion in 2023, actual capture capacity remains very limited.
Currently, operational plants remove hardly symbolic amounts compared to what would be needed on a global scale.
Furthermore, costs remain high. Capturing one ton of CO₂ directly from the air can cost hundreds of dollars, making the model almost entirely dependent on companies willing to pay voluntarily.
Herein lies the real problem, I believe: without regulation, there is no robust market. If companies are not required to pay for their emissions, few will do so in any meaningful way. And those who yes are doing it—mainly large tech companies—see it more as an investment in reputation than an operational necessity.
This creates a domino effect. Several startups in the sector are already downsizing, and others are facing serious difficulties in surviving. The initial enthusiasm is giving way to a more realistic… and tougher stage.
For carbon capture to have a viable future, many experts agree on one point: a clear regulatory framework is essential.
Systems like carbon pricing or emissions taxes could completely change the landscape. If polluting has a real cost, capturing carbon automatically becomes a more attractive business opportunity. Without that impetus, the sector will continue to depend on voluntary commitments, which are, by definition, unstable.
Here, it's important to be clear. Carbon capture is not the main solution to the climate problem. The only real solution is to drastically reduce emissions. Stop polluting, not clean up afterward.
However, the challenge before us is so enormous that any technology that helps reduce CO₂ concentration should be welcomed. Especially in sectors where emissions are difficult to eliminate completely.
CO₂ capture is at a crossroads. It has potential, but also enormous economic and regulatory hurdles. If governments intervene and establish clear rules, it could solidify as a key tool in the fight against climate change. Otherwise, many of the current companies will disappear before they mature.
In the coming years, we will see if this technology moves from promise to reality… or remains a good idea that arrived too soon.
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