After many billions of dollars of investment and many years saying that the solution was just around the corner, I think that the year 2022 has been a reality check for the market, when some of the companies (like Argo) have abandoned this market.
In that year, investments in this field have fallen by more than 60% (in just one year), and expectations have cooled down a lot, to begin to be more realistic. And there are already many companies that do not talk about fully autonomous vehicles but about improvements and driving aids ( ADAS advanced driver-assistance systems).
And although the autonomous car sector has not changed its objective, it has focused on the taxi service in large cities, where hundreds of millions of people move each year. It's not a negligible niche market, and that's where Waymo, Cruise and other companies are working hard.
Both Waymo and Cruise have increased the area in the cities that offer their services, especially San Francisco and Phoenix. Waymo already offers 4-passenger rides in the same vehicle, and Cruise is testing the Origin car model that doesn't have a driving seat or steering wheel.
The main problem these companies face is the economic results of these activities. Cruise (belonging to General Motors) has lost 561 million dollars in the first quarter of 2023, and I have not obtained data from Waymo, but it will not be very promising either.
Large companies have "big pockets" and can last a long time without making money. But nobody likes that, especially its shareholders.
And meanwhile there are many other technology companies that offer services and products to improve driving aids (ADAS). Products that are added to the new car models that appear on the market, and that in this way improve the safety of the cars.
I think this will be the trend that prevails in the market. Automobile manufacturers will try to reach Level 3 of autonomous driving, so that the driver has the maximum assistance, but without being able to stop paying attention to the wheel, and therefore being responsible for what happens in his car in the event of an accident.
And leave Level 4 of autonomous driving for autonomous taxis that offer services in large cities. And that will spread very little by little, and from city to city.
We will see it over time.
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