The whirlwind of trade policies, with its sudden twists and turns, has reached such a point that I am overcome with a sense of concern. As I listen to Mr. Trump's demagogic statements about tariffs, and then watch him backtrack, I wonder how a world leader can have such unpredictable criteria. I can understand the idea of protecting the domestic market, but not the inconsistency, the lack of planning, and the uncertainty it generates for the population and the entire world.
For decades, China has consolidated its position as the world's largest factory. It produces an astonishing variety of goods for the vast majority of consumers, and the West has progressively shed a significant portion of its industrial capacity.
This dependence, this intensive globalization, has brought short-term benefits in the form of lower prices, but it has also brought great fragility. COVID-19 dealt a severe blow to this structure, exposing the great vulnerability to supply chain disruption. The lack of local production of essential goods, such as masks, highlighted our dependence.
Now, the same situation is repeating itself, but on a larger scale and with even more unpredictable consequences. Numerous products, from computers and mobile phones to smartwatches and a multitude of electronic components, depend on manufacturing in China and other Asian countries. The complex network of suppliers and components makes dismantling this chain a titanic task, a shift in industrial paradigm, far beyond the capacity of any administration to react.
Apple, for example, has taken precautions by moving part of its production out of China to another Asian country, demonstrating an understanding of the industrial reality, but also the difficulty of this task if it wants to remain competitive. Recovering production capacity in the West is not achieved with a change of heart or a decree, but with a long-term strategy.
As someone who has dedicated more than 40 years to the industry, I understand the importance of maintaining and developing manufacturing capabilities in our countries. But reconstruction doesn't happen in an instant; processes, machines, and experience all require time and substantial investment. Sudden changes and political improvisation not only don't contribute to the solution, but they also generate instability and, even more seriously, make products more expensive for everyone.
The current approach, based on impulsive decisions driven by the need to make headlines, doesn't guarantee success. The industrial reality is much more complex and requires in-depth analysis and strategic planning. The solution doesn't lie in the empty rhetoric of leaders seeking short-term popularity.
The current situation makes me think that, despite the global problems facing the world, the strategy of many Western countries is far from focused on the right answers. In this economic tidal wave, China and other Asian countries could benefit most, taking advantage of the uncertainty and volatility of the US stance. The lack of certainty and predictability in US foreign policy is leading many countries in Europe and elsewhere to seek more reliable alliances and partners to minimize the impact of such a volatile policy.
This outlook does not inspire much confidence. Tariffs and unforeseen trade measures will ultimately make products more expensive for the end consumer. The consequences will be inevitable. The truth is that the future in the field of international relations is much more complex and complicated than many seem to think. If we consider the current geopolitical situation is very delicate, then we must make decisions very carefully.
The reality is that products will become more expensive for all of us. I have no doubt about it. And if not, time will tell. Only time will tell whether current actions have positive consequences or whether the situation worsens. The reality is that the risk of generating a global contraction is quite palpable.
As always, time will tell.
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