I have read with interest some statements by Ford CEO Jim Farley about the near future of electric cars, because this nice man knows what he is talking about, and the most important thing is that he does it with up-to-date market information.
The statements were made on June 1 of this year at the Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference , and I am clear that they will continue to be valid for the coming months.
The main message is that today electric cars are very expensive (above 45,000 dollars) and in the near future their target price will be around 25,000 dollars. This means reducing the price by almost half, which indicates that the competition in the coming years is going to be fierce.
Today the battery is the most expensive part (almost 18,000 dollars) of the electric car, and the new batteries with cheaper materials, together with the increase in production rates will lower their prices. Currently, all the major car manufacturers are investing in having battery production capacity so as not to run out of supply for their cars.
Ford, through its CEO, announces that it is redesigning its new electric models so that they are cheaper to manufacture (less welding, less rivets, less weight, …), and that they do not need such large batteries to achieve a range between 400 and 500 km
But it is one thing to say it, and another thing to do it. It is not easy at all what Jim Farley wants to achieve in a short time, and all the participants in this game move their pawns. The advantage that Ford and other major manufacturers (GM, Mercedes, etc…) have is their enormous economic and technological capacity, but this does not mean that the competition they will encounter will be less.
It is in China where most electric cars are sold today, and apart from Nio, which manufactures cars similar to European and North American ones (and some models with autonomy close to 1,000 km), there are other smaller manufacturers such as Wuling that offer small cars and singles for a price below 7,000 dollars.
These simple cars are designed for use in the city, but they offer a range of 170 km and their price makes them very attractive, especially in Europe where we have somewhat smaller cars.
Nobody knows the future, but I think that the electric car market of the future is going to be quite different from the one we know today, and it is not clear who will survive or under what conditions.
For users, it is essential that the governments of the countries facilitate the implementation of fast battery charging stations on the roads. That is what will take away the fear of going on a long trip with an electric car.
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