Esto no lo digo yo. Lo ha sugerido nada menos que Bloomberg, en un informe que analiza el impacto potencial de las políticas de Donald Trump sobre el coche eléctrico en Estados Unidos. Y no lo hace con estridencias, sino con datos: las decisiones del expresidente, al volver al poder, podrían retrasar varios años la transición hacia el vehículo eléctrico (EV, por sus siglas en inglés) en el país. Las consecuencias, dicen, serían “muy duras”.
Over the last five years, the electric car has ceased to be a futuristic promise and has become a significant industrial reality. By 2023, 70% of all electric cars sold worldwide will be manufactured in China. What's more, it's already cheaper to buy an electric vehicle in that country than an internal combustion engine. Public aid, a domestically controlled supply chain (including batteries), and a determined industrial policy have enabled giants like BYD and NIO to lead the global transition.
Meanwhile, the United States, one of the 20th-century birthplaces of the automobile, is bewildered by the changing cycle. And this is where Donald Trump's policies come into play.
During his previous term (2016-2020), Trump dismantled much of the incentive system designed to promote electric cars and clean energy. Federal subsidies were eliminated, emissions standards were relaxed, and the role of the Environmental Protection Agency was minimized. All in the name of protecting the "traditional" automobile and oil industries.
Now, upon his return to the White House in 2025, Trump has promised to "kill the electric car" if necessary to defend auto workers in Michigan and other industrial states. The problem is that this discourse, although well received by certain sectors, completely ignores where the rest of the world is moving.
Bloomberg warns: the US is lagging behind. In its recent analysis, Bloomberg estimates that a second Trump term could delay electric car adoption in the United States by five to ten years. This gap is not only environmental; it is above all economic and industrial. Because while the country slows down, China accelerates.
Below is the graph presented by Bloomberg:
Chinese manufacturers, many of them state-owned, are taking advantage of this gap to enter foreign markets with unprecedented strength. Not only are they constantly introducing new models, but they are also aggressively lowering prices. In an environment where technology has already matured, what counts is scale and industrial efficiency. And there, the West is arriving late.
Europe is already feeling the shock. You don't have to look far to see the consequences. Volkswagen recently announced massive workforce cuts, as did Bosch, as they grapple with declining demand and competitive pressure from new Asian players. Workers, once again, are bearing the brunt of years of strategic myopia on the part of senior executives and politicians who failed to see (or failed to manage) the paradigm shift.
The problem for the North American industry is twofold. On the one hand, divestment in electric means failing to build the necessary infrastructure (charging networks, batteries, adapted factories, technical training). On the other, it allows competitors to consolidate sooner. Once BYD, Geely, or Xiaomi Motors are well positioned in Europe and Latin America, it will be very difficult for Ford or GM to regain that ground.
And it's not just a question of the domestic market. Exports are also at risk. If the US wants to remain a relevant player in the 21st-century automotive industry, it can't afford to play dumb.
Why didn't they see it coming? Perhaps the most frustrating question is this: how is it possible that the Western automotive giants, which led the world for almost a century, didn't anticipate such an obvious transformation?
The answer lies in a mix of complacency (they were making a lot of money), pressure from oil lobbies, and a flawed political reading. Instead of seeing electrification as an opportunity, it was perceived as a threat. Meanwhile, in China, they bet everything on change. And they won.
The good news is that all is not lost yet. The Biden administration attempted to reverse some of the damage with the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and subsidies for battery and electric vehicle production on US soil. But if that path is abruptly cut off, as Mr. Trump is doing, the US could be hopelessly left behind.
History is full of examples of industries that failed to adapt in time. The North American and European automobile industry, a symbol of the 20th century, is at a crossroads: adapt or die. And this time, competition isn't just coming from Europe... but from across the Pacific, and it's moving at full speed.
Will this industry be able to react before it's too late? Or will it, paradoxically, end up falling victim to its own political decisions?
The bad news is that the harsh consequences will be borne by the workers in this industry, who will be left jobless, through no fault of their own. That's how unfair life is.
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