For decades, it was assumed as an unquestionable truth that economic growth meant more pollution. More factories, more transportation, more energy consumption… and, as a direct consequence, more carbon emissions. It was the inevitable price of progress.
The indicator that best summarizes this idea is Gross Domestic Product (GDP). For a long time, those who defended economic growth at any cost insisted that reducing emissions meant slowing down the economy. Today, that assertion is beginning to lose empirical support.
Un reciente informe de la Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) aporta un dato clave: el 92% de la economía global ya ha conseguido crecer sin aumentar sus emisiones de carbono. Es decir, la mayor parte del mundo está logrando desacoplar crecimiento económico y contaminación. Y esto marca un punto de inflexión histórico.
Decoupling is now a reality. According to data from the Global Carbon Budget, this phenomenon is not an isolated exception, but a clear trend in advanced economies. More and more countries are increasing their GDP while reducing or stabilizing their emissions.
This is explained by several combined factors:
. Renewable energy sources are cheaper than fossil fuels.
. Improved energy efficiency technologies.
. Electrification of transport and industry.
. Digitization of processes and services.
The result is a more efficient economy, less energy-intensive and, above all, less polluting.
China is often cited as the prime example. Since 2015, the Chinese economy has grown by around 50%, while its emissions have increased by only 24%. And in the last year and a half, its economic growth has not been accompanied by an increase in emissions.
If a country that started with a significant environmental deficit has been able to initiate this decoupling, it is clear that it is not a technical problem, but primarily a political and strategic one.
This is an important message for the future. These data completely refute the argument that protecting the climate is incompatible with economic development. Today we know that growth is possible without increasing pollution, and that delaying the transition only exacerbates the problem.
The sooner emissions are reduced, the lower the economic, social, and climate costs will be. Solutions exist, they work, and they are already being implemented in much of the world.
It's not a matter of choosing between the economy and the climate. That dichotomy is no longer valid. The real challenge is to accelerate a new growth model that has already proven itself possible.
And this time, the data supports optimism. We'll see how things develop.
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