Today I'm going to reflect on the expectation surrounding humanoid robots, trying to differentiate between the fascination with prototypes and the harsh reality of industrial robotics.
There isn't a single technical magazine or futurism article that doesn't talk about the imminent arrival of these machines in factories, warehouses, and even our homes. The media paints a bright future where humanoids will perform countless tasks.
However, in my opinion, this is exaggerated optimism, driven largely by the companies themselves that invest billions in their development and by analysts seeking to create eye-catching headlines.
When I read estimates like Morgan Stanley's, which predicts one billion humanoid robots by 2050, I can't help but raise an eyebrow. These figures, while a great incentive for investors, lack a deep analysis of real market niches and economic viability. What they do is simply inflate an optimistic bubble that ignores the basic laws of engineering and economics.
I don't mean to say that humanoid robots aren't appealing. In fact, they are crucial for certain specialized operations where their shape and manner of movement may be necessary to manipulate tools designed for humans. But from there to ensuring that they will spread to almost all fields, there is a huge gap.
There are inherent problems with humanoid design. Modern robotics is not a beauty contest or a human imitation contest, but an industry that demands efficiency, reliability, and profitability. And this is where humanoid design presents significant challenges:
. Cost and Complexity: A robot with legs and arms is inherently more expensive and more difficult to manufacture than a simple mobile robot with wheels.
. Energy Consumption: Moving and balancing a bipedal body requires much more energy and battery power. This drastically reduces the robot's operational time.
. Lower Reliability: Having more joints and complex mechanisms makes it more expensive to ensure the robot's reliability.
In industry, a robot must operate for more than 99.99% of its operational time. Manufacturers demand maximum reliability and the lowest possible consumption to ensure almost 100% operational capacity. A high failure rate or excessive recharging time makes the investment unprofitable.
Today, we see a large number of impressive prototypes and videos that generate a lot of interest. There are many companies, such as Figure AI or Boston Dynamics, testing and finding their place. But this is very different from the market reality.
Goods manufacturers are closely scrutinizing costs, return on investment, and actual operational capacity in industrial environments. It's one thing to have a robot demonstrating in a laboratory, but it's quite another to have thousands of units installed in factory environments operating 24/7.
Currently, the market is very curious, but there is little real demand for humanoid robots for general-purpose tasks. This is a novelty that must be realized with real economic results that justify its high cost compared to simpler, more robust, and cheaper automation solutions (such as fixed robotic arms or automated guided vehicles).
As always with technology, time will tell. But until then, analysts and investors would be wise to temper their enthusiasm with a dose of engineering realism.
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