The self-driving car revolution is about to take one of its most significant steps. Waymo, Google's sister company under the Alphabet umbrella, has set its sights on Europe, and the first stop has a name: London. It is expected that by 2026, the iconic black cabs will share the streets with the world's most advanced self-driving technology.
This is not an isolated experiment. Self-driving taxis (or "robotaxis") are already an operational reality in several US cities, such as Phoenix and San Francisco, where Waymo has accumulated millions of miles of experience.
The arrival in London marks a crucial milestone. After announcing plans for Tokyo, the British capital becomes Waymo's second major deployment outside the US and, more importantly, its first European base. The message is clear: urban transport automation is serious and has global ambitions.
Of course, don't expect to see Waymo Jaguars all over Hyde Park from day one. The expansion strategy is always the same: start cautiously. Waymo will begin testing with a small fleet and in a very limited geographic area of central London. As the technology learns the intricacies of London traffic (roundabouts and rain included), the service will expand like an oil slick.
This is where we enter the muddy waters, the million-dollar question every analyst asks. Today, all companies offering autonomous taxi services lose money. And quite a bit. Each trip generates losses, as the cost of technology, maintenance, and supervision (human and remote) remains astronomical.
So, why expand into even more complex and expensive markets like London? The answer is one word: penetration. These companies are playing a long-term chess game. The goal isn't to make money today, but to dominate the market of tomorrow. They're expanding their revenue and user base, betting that the potential market is so vast that it will justify the colossal initial investment.
As an engineer, I'm fascinated by technology, but as a manager, I wonder: where is the break-even point? How many billions are companies like Alphabet willing to invest before Waymo stops burning cash and starts generating profits?
Waymo has the advantage of generous funding, but no pocketbook is infinite. I don't have the information to estimate when these services will be profitable. Technology is one part of the challenge; regulation, public acceptance, and, above all, cost optimization are the others.
It's quite possible that we're still several years away from that tipping point. London 2026 isn't the finish line; it's just the pistol shot for the European autonomous taxi race.
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