Autonomous driving, and in particular, so-called robotaxis, have become one of the hottest topics in the tech world, especially in the United States. Every day, we hear news about new cities that will host testing, but the reality of the business is still far from mature.
Right now, Waymo, a subsidiary of Alphabet (Google), clearly leads the self-driving taxi market in the US. It operates more than 1,500 vehicles in cities such as San Francisco, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Austin, providing more than 250,000 paid trips per week.
In June 2025, it applied for permits to begin testing in Manhattan; First, with safety drivers and manual mapping, with the goal of moving to a driverless service in the near future, if state law allows.
Even so, the complexity of New York traffic (pedestrians, cyclists, construction) represents a real challenge.
Furthermore, Waymo plans to expand to cities like Miami, Atlanta, Washington, D.C., and possibly Tokyo and the rest of New York, with estimates of expanding to 10 or more new cities by 2025-26.
Despite this, margins remain tight and there are no consolidated profits yet.
Zoox, an Amazon company founded in 2014, has been providing autonomous services in Las Vegas for over a year and plans to manufacture up to 10,000 robotaxis per year at its new plant in Hayward, California.
Zoox's vehicle stands out for its steering-wheel-free design, designed for purely autonomous travel. Its goal: to increase production from one to three cars per hour on dual shifts.
And although it has had some problems—a fleet recall following an accident in Las Vegas in April—it remains committed to testing and production.
Tesla: Promises that are delayed. Tesla has been announcing an autonomous taxi service for years, but the reality is that it is still far from safe enough. Although it has begun limited testing—for example, in Austin—its system continues to exhibit errors and, for now, it doesn't compete head-to-head with Waymo or Zoox.
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Safety: As reliable as they say?
The perception of safety is key to success. Studies—such as one involving 56.7 million miles of self-driving Waymo—show a statistically significant reduction in serious accidents compared to human drivers.
However, incidents have not disappeared: from vehicle fires in Los Angeles to collisions with traffic signs, fueling public distrust.
Although the US and China are clearly leading the way (the latter only with very limited testing and deployment), global expansion—especially in Europe—will be slow. The barriers are multiple:
. Regulation: Each country has different laws. In New York, a safety driver is still required in the cab.
. Urban infrastructure: Cities with heavy traffic or adverse conditions (snow, rain) require technical and logistical adaptations.
. Citizen perception: Even if the data is favorable, the public will remain cautious.
. Economic sustainability: Many years without real profit can exhaust weaker competitors.
A vibrant future or a mirage of hype?
The analogy with the popularization of mobile phones is recurrent in the media: the phone changed our world. However, while autonomous driving promises similar transformations, it will not be as widespread or rapid. Today, almost all of humanity uses smartphones; the same will not be true for robot cars.
Even in the US and China—clear leaders in the sector—many steps remain to be taken: regulation, robust technology, public acceptance, and economic viability. It will take a long time, and only the big players (Waymo, Amazon/Zoox, perhaps Tesla) can endure a long road without profits.
Conclusion: Realism with hope:
. Waymo dominates the sector, with a clear lead in weekly rides, pilots in cities, and testing in Manhattan, with a vision for moderate expansion.
. Zoox is betting big, with a factory of 10,000 units and deployment in Las Vegas, albeit with technical setbacks.
. Tesla still continues to show promise (and it's been a few years), but has yet to launch a reliable and safe service.
The legal, human, economic, and social challenges are enormous. It won't be a bed of roses for anyone.
I admit that this field fascinates me. It has the potential to change the way we move, but there's undoubtedly a long and uncertain road ahead. I'm wary of visions of short-term mass adoption, although I admire the determination and investment of these companies. I only hope that, as they move forward, they do so with confidence, realism, and a long-term vision.
Time and the users (us) will tell who truly endures and succeeds. And I hope to be here to tell the tale!
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